Spaceguard UK – Latest News: “The rock, 2004 VD17, is about 500 metres (yards) long and has a mass of nearly a billion tonnes, which — if it were to impact — would deliver 10,000 megatonnes of energy, equivalent to all the world’s nuclear weapons.

Spotted on November 27 2004, VD 17 was swiftly identified as rock that potentially crossed Earth’s orbit, with a 1 in 3,000 risk of collision on May 4 2102.

Further observations and calculations have prompted the risk on that day to be upgraded to ‘a bit less than 1 in 1,000,’ said NASA Near-Earth Object (NEO) expert David Morrison in an emailed circular.”

One in a thousand just isn’t that remote of a chance, given an impact (no pun intended) of that magnitude. The generation currently toddling around may still be alive … heck, if Ray Kurzweil is right, we may still be alive.

(Via Warren Ellis.)

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